THE IMPACT OF LAND DEGRADATION AND CLIMATE ANOMALIES ON FOOD CROP PRODUCTIVITY IN ARID REGIONS OF INDONESIA: AN ARDL APPROACH

Abstract

In recent decades, Indonesia's agricultural sector has been faced with land degradation and climate change. These phenomena impact national food security in the long term. This study empirically analyzes the effects of land degradation and climate anomalies on the productivity of rice, corn, and soybean crops in the short and long terms in two dry regions in Indonesia, namely West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara. The analysis results show that the area of ​​degraded land negatively impacts the productivity of rice, corn, and soybeans in both the short and long term. Annual air temperature has a positive impact on corn and soybean productivity in the short term. In the long term, an increase in annual temperature has a negative impact on corn productivity and a positive impact on future soybean productivity. Annual rainfall has a positive impact on corn and soybean productivity and also has a negative impact on soybean productivity in the short term. In the long term, rainfall has a negative impact on future corn and soybean productivity. Annual air humidity has a positive impact on corn and soybean productivity in the short term. In the long term, an increase in air humidity has a negative impact on corn productivity and a positive impact on future soybean productivity. These findings have implications for adaptation strategies and national agricultural development policies in response to climate change and land degradation. They also require further exploration of variables related to productivity, such as cultivation technology, capital, and labor, to obtain a comprehensive picture of the future of national food crop productivity. These include strengthening farmer capacity through extension programs, encouraging the adoption of climate-adaptive agricultural technologies, land conservation and restoration programs, and synergistic agricultural development policies for the sustainability of national food security.