ON THE EDGE: TRADE WARS IMPACT ON GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN STABILITY AND BUSINESS COST

Abstract

Global trade tensions have increasingly influenced the stability of international production networks and business operations. This study aims to examine the impact of trade wars on global supply chain stability and business costs. The research employs a qualitative research approach using a descriptive and explanatory design. Data were collected through a comprehensive review of academic literature, international trade reports, and policy documents related to global trade conflicts and supply chain dynamics. The collected data were analyzed using thematic analysis to identify key patterns and relationships between trade policy changes, supply chain disruptions, and business cost structures. The findings indicate that trade wars significantly affect the stability of global supply chains through tariff increases, retaliatory trade policies, and regulatory uncertainties that disrupt the flow of goods and intermediate inputs across countries. These disruptions create delays in logistics and production processes, forcing companies to adjust their sourcing and distribution strategies. In addition, the study reveals that trade wars contribute to rising operational costs for businesses, including higher tariffs, increased logistics expenses, compliance costs, and supply chain restructuring investments. The analysis also shows that firms respond to these challenges by adopting strategic adaptations such as supplier diversification, production relocation, and the regionalization of supply chain networks. These strategies are intended to reduce dependence on specific trading partners and improve resilience against geopolitical and economic uncertainties.