UNEQUAL CAPACITY, UNEQUAL OUTCOMES? SUBNATIONAL CAPACITY AND JUNIOR-SECONDARY EDUCATION IN INDONESIA

Abstract

This study examines whether unequal subnational capacity is associated with unequal educational participation and measured learning outcomes in a decentralised education system. It reconstructs a balanced panel of 27 districts and municipalities in West Java, Indonesia, from 2015 to 2019 (N = 135). A 15-indicator Structural Capacity Index combines educational resources, territorial accessibility, socioeconomic capacity, and population quality. Pooled ordinary least squares and district and year fixed-effects models are estimated with district-clustered standard errors; examination integrity is included in the achievement model. Capacity is positively associated with junior-secondary gross enrolment in pooled estimates, but the relationship disappears under fixed effects. No robust association is found between capacity and National Examination scores. These results distinguish capacity accumulation from capacity conversion: structural advantages separate jurisdictions, but short-term changes in capacity do not automatically generate improvements in access or learning. Capacity appears easier to convert into participation than into measured learning, which depends on instructional processes and assessment credibility. The findings support capacity-sensitive and asymmetric intergovernmental policy in decentralised systems.